The software backlog: OSF/1 for the Alpha RISC not expected to
arrive before late 1993
Besides the Alpha chip and the Alpha hardware, Digital Equipment
Corp has to come up with some Alpha operating systems too.
According to an informed source, the current DEC schedule, which
the company may already be tinkering with to make it more
aggressive, doesn't call for anything to be ready until the late
fourth quarter and then it's on the VMS side - a software
developers' environment. The promised OSF/1 software doesn't follow
until sometime in early 1993 beginning with an initial version that
includes C, C++, graphics options, DECnet, X.25, software
engineering tools and bundled TCP/IP. Even that, it is reported,
will not be commercial quality. The market will supposedly have to
wait around until late 1993 at the earliest for a more robust
system that begins to resemble what Hewlett-Packard Co and Sun
Microsystems Inc already have today and that can do symmetric
multi-processing. Before this point is reached, however, supposedly
in the late first half of 1993, DEC is scheduled to announce
Microsoft Corp's NT, the third Alpha operating system. However,
observers think that according to what is currently known about
DEC's prospective Alpha hardware it looks to be too expensive for
the Microsoft operating system. The lowest cost Alpha box on the
horizon is rumoured to be the Sandpiper desktop at $15,000. Of
course DEC is planning to finish design work on a scaled-down lower
cost version of the Alpha chip late this summer but when that will
wend its way into a marketable system remains to be seen. Even the
VMS side of Alpha doesn't bespeak the company getting to market any
sooner. In the first quarter of 1993, DEC is supposed to have a
version of VMS that includes a software engineering environment,
TCP/IP, X25, a relational database, Ada and networking. However, it
won't be until the third stage of the VMS rollout in the second
quarter of 1993 that Alpha gets symmetric multi-processing. Hence,
the schedule seems to imply that DEC won't be able to ship any
multi-processor hardware before this point. This "stage three" VMS
software also includes Posix compatibility, distributed computing
and full clustering. What is still lacking is the horsepower needed
for transaction processing. That apparently makes its debut in the
third quarter of 1993 with an enterprise system that includes SNA
support and volume shadowing. Software being software of course
raises the innate scepticism that these deadlines can be met let
alone moved forward.
More intelligence on the first models, state of play on the
chips
The missing DEC Alpha machine in our list last week (CI No 1,870)
is thought to be a $50,000 box called Sable. Meanwhile, our sources
say the Flamingo Alpha box is a deskside or floor-standing model
and that Sandpiper is the desktop. On the basis only that a
Sandpiper is a tiny little bird and a Flamingo isn't, that sounds
reasonable. The source has Sandpiper coming at around $15,000 and
Flamingo at $25,000, but hears that Flamingo may get killed off
before it has a chance to fly. He also has Laser in uniprocessor
configurations staring at $175,000.Contrary to what we've heard
elsewhere, DEC was bragging last week about how its first pass
fabricating Alpha produced a chip that was fully functional and ran
at full speed: it also said it currently had the capability to
produce in volume, just no need to before the summer - but declined
to discuss what the volume was. It had a 100MHz Alpha in 1990, a
150MHz last summer and now has 200MHz. Analyst Terry Shannon says
that it was true last year with the EV3 version that DEC did not
have a fully functional chip, but now DEC has advanced to EV4 the
floating point problem has been fixed.
DEC looks to announce second sources for the Alpha within
weeks
In Europe, Pier Carlo Falotti insisted that other Alpha
announcements will be following over the next few weeks, although,
he said, there are still details to work out over the (probably
two) semiconductor partners - a key hurdle before it gets t
he chip accepted by other system vendors. In the US, Digital
Equipment Corp claimed to be in active negotiations with one
unidentified semiconductor house. Speculation pointed to NEC Corp
being a suitable candidate. Meantime the company is setting up 30
centres where end users and software houses can go to recompile
their software for Alpha. Software written for the MIPStations and
VAX machines will of course not run at the same speed as stuff
written specifically for Alpha. DEC estimated they would be 30% to
50% of their former selves. The centres are also anxious to service
new applications, particularly those in such new markets as
multimedia and imaging. DEC claimed 300 third parties are prepared
to move their software to Alpha and that next month a series of
announcements will begin on who has opted to back Alpha.
Delay in announcing NT agreement with Microsoft sounds like haggles
on price
DEC was acting odd and mysterious last week issuing a two-line
press release about having serious discussions with Microsoft Corp
about supplying NT on Alpha but not being "at liberty" to say more.
What gives here, guys, everyone else thinks it's a done deal. Our
sources are betting it's a case of DEC trying to get better pricing
out of Microsoft. After all DEC will doubtless be licensing NT on
to the manufacturers that buy licences for Alpha, and that will
make for a complicated royalty structure.
The gurus have their - impressed and sceptical - says
UBS Securities vice-president Marc Schulman, probably the first
analyst of any description to detail DEC's Alpha strategy to the
outside world, found the bit about Privileged Architecture Library
Code - PALcode - and the chips being operating system-independent
really interesting: "it's Network Application System in hardware,"
he claimed. RISC Management editor Andrew Allison, in reacting to
the Alpha announcement notes that DEC has invented some pretty
esoteric processes to produce the chip, yet anybody can have it.
"Just how easily will it be", he wonders, for other semiconductor
houses toreplicate it? Then again how good will DEC's yield be?
Allison is also cautious about keeping a weather eye cocked on all
these competitive lead times. DEC, which he claims is being cagey
with when any Alpha boxes will really be available, only has a
paper performance lead right now. By fourth quarter, MIPS Computer,
Hewlett-Packard Co and IBM Corp will have chips in the 150MHz
neighbourhood.
