Mobile networks buckling under data burden

Will Google Nexus One be the straw that breaks the mobile networks's back?

The launch of Google’s Nexus One handset places already over-burdened mobile networks under more strain.

Before Christmas, O2’s network crashed under the strain of dealing with data demands of the iPhone, leaving Apple users unable to connect for two days. If the high fanfare launch of Google’s Android-based handset translates into sales, this will only add to the problems for network providers.

“In comparison to the iPhone, the Nexus One is even more of a data hog,” according to Stephen Rayment, CTO of BelAir Networks. “Whereas with the iPhone you can only use one application at a time (at least for now), with the Nexus One you can use multiple applications at the same time, all of which will be downloading data from the mobile network,” said Rayment.

Market research Juniper Research recently predicted that in 2010, 3G networks could buckle under the barrage of data requests from smartphones and wireless mobile devices. The formidable 33.8 million sales of iPhones was highlighted as one of the main contributing factors to the upsurge in mobile data traffic.

More smartphone launches spell further problems ahead. “Unless drastic steps are taken we will soon see a complete mobile meltdown. Particularly in those areas where there is a high concentration of users, we will see far more complaints of poor performance and of networks going down. This is going to be a massive problem for the mobile operators in 2010 and 2011. On the one hand, they want us all to use more mobile applications and services, but at the same time in highly populated areas, their networks simply can’t cope,” Rayment said.
 
According to Sylvain Fabre, research director for carrier network infrastructure at Gartner, continually building up the network capability will only solve the problem temporarily. What is needed is a complete change in pricing policy, moving from a flat-rate to a pay-per-use system.

“You can keep begin up the networks but after a while it does stop making sense and I think we have already reached that point with 3G,” said Fabre.

While it used to be the case that intensive P2P users hogged bandwidth, the popularity of smartphones and other devices means that even the data usage of average users is rising. Yankee Group predicted that by next year, the average user may gobble up 20 gigabytes of bandwidth a month – 40 times the rate of today’s average 500 megabyte download.

But rather than bite the bullet and announce pay-per-use pricing models, and risk alienating customers, Fabre anticipated operators would bring in these changes by stealth.

“They will follow the drug dealer model. Now they’ve hooked people, they will try and make them pay for it,” said Fabre.

According to Cassandra Millhouse, marketing director for Amdocs Operational Support Systems division, carriers need to “expand, sweat and charge” to cope with current demand and prepare for 4G applications. So, first off, they must expand their capacity.

“There’s a physical limit to what can be built, therefore they need to better sweat out their existing technology,” said Millhouse. “Third, they need to charge more effectively for capacity.”

Millhouse pointed out that in Spain, for example, consumers can pay for a premium account to get faster speeds.

An alternative approach, suggested Rayment, was that operators could turn to Wi-Fi to lighten the load, as the new breed of handsets, including the Nexus One, all support Wi-Fi.

”By offloading traffic onto Wi-Fi networks, operators can save (or at least defer) the costly exercise of upgrading mobile networks.  Google can deliver truly broadband mobile services to its Nexus One users free of the bottlenecks of traditional mobile networks.  Nexus One and iPhone users don’t care if they are accessing the applications and services they want over Wi-Fi or mobile networks, for them it’s all about having a good mobile broadband experience,” said Rayment.

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