The Semiconductor Industry Association raised its full year forecast for 2003 after a surge of growth in the third quarter. The trade body expects full year sales to come in at $163 billion, a rise of 15.8% on the year.
Next year promises an even better performance, with 19.4% growth pushing the industry to $194 billion. At the same time, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) pointed to upcoming capacity constraints, and identified a fundamental shift in the market, as high entry costs force designers to seek the broadest possible market for their products. While 2004 will show strong growth, the surge will weaken in subsequent years, with growth rates of 5.8% and 6.6% in 2005 and 2006.
This year’s projected 15.8% growth is still below the 20% figure the SIA predicted at the beginning of the year. However, the Iraq war, and the SARS outbreak in Asia, both had a freezing effect on consumer and business spending. The SIA later cut its forecast for the year to 10%. However, the sharp apparent revival in the third quarter has clearly prompted a reevaluation of the industry’s prospects.
The strongest growth will come outside the US. The market in the Americas will grow just 1.9% this year to $31.9 billion, with 17.7% next year, 1.7% in 2005, and 6.4% in 2006.
The European market will hit $32.6 billion this year, up 17.3%, rising 14.7% next year, 5.9% in 2005 and 6.3% in 2006.
Japan will surge 24.3% this year to $37.9 billion, with 17.9% next year, 4.6% in 2005 and 4.4% in 2006. While the strongest growth of all will come in Asia Pacific, up 18.6% this year to $60.6 billion, 23.4% in 2004, 8.2% in 2005 and 8.2% in 2006.
The microprocessor market will pick up on the back of reviving PC sales, climbing 14.4% this year to $27.3 billion, and growing 18.3% in 2004, 7.6% in 2005 and 6% in 2006.
DRAM will climb 7.9% this year to $16.5 billion; will jump 35% in 2004, before slumping 20% in 2005 and rebounding 30% the following year.
Flash memory will leap 42.7% this year to $11.1 billion, 36.4% next year, 2% in 2005 and 9% in 2006.
While the DSP market will rise 25.9% this year to $6.1 billion, 27.1% in 2004, 19.3% in 2005 and 7.6% in 2006.
This article was based on material originally published by ComputerWire.