Gartner expects total semiconductor revenue to reach $342bn in 2014
Worldwide semiconductor revenue will hit $311bn in 2013, an increase of 4.5% from 2012, according to analyst house Gartner.
The report also revised the fourth quarter projections down from the previous quarter’s forecast of $330bn, due to gloomy economic conditions and what Gartner describes as an inventory correction.
The report shows that analysts have also reduced their growth predictions for 2012, with semiconductor revenue expected to total $298bn, a decrease of 3% compared to 2011.
Gartner principal analyst Peter Middleton said: "The looming fiscal cliff, ongoing European debt crisis, slower emerging market growth and regional tensions have all played a part in reduced growth projections for semiconductor revenue in both 2012 and 2013."
"Inventory levels were already high at the start of the second half of 2012, and as PC demand rolled off, supply simply overshot demand," Middleton said.
The report indicated that when DRAM prices failed to rebound in 2012, the semiconductor market’s mood was dampened. Gartner does not expect the DRAM market to recover until the second half of 2013, as lower supply growth is expected to pull the market into a period of undersupply.
It is expected that memory will lead the recovery with 15.3% growth, and the revenue of the total semiconductor market is expected to reach $342bn in 2014, a growth of of 9.9% from 2013.
According to Gartner, the "Apple effect" is expected to remain pronounced in 2013, helping drive strong NAND and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) revenue growth of 17.2% and 9.4%, respectively.
PC production is expected to decline 2.5% in 2012 and in 2013, while ultramobile PCs are projected to increase their marketshare significantly.